Ten Million Cases

A post on the Book of Feces Faces was lamenting that we’re up to ten million cases of Covid-19. Just for perspective, the CDC estimates that during the 2018-2019 season, the US had some 35.5 million cases of the flu. Of these, 16.5 million people went to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 were hospitalized, and 34,200 died.

So worldwide, we have just over 10 million cases of Covid-10. Of these, nearly 503,000 have died. In the USA, we’ve had 2.6 million cases, and 128 thousand deaths. So there are a lot fewer cases, but it does seem to have a higher mortality rate.

I still wonder what the reaction would have been had the news presented daily counts of the numbers of cases and deaths from flu two years ago.

Failures of Epidemic Models

Michael Fumento on the failures of epidemic models:

The … crisis we face is unparalleled in modern times,” said the World Health Organization’s assistant director, while its director general proclaimed it “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.” This was based on a CDC computer model projection predicting as many as 1.4 million deaths from just two countries. 

So when did they say this about COVID-19? Trick question: It was actually about the Ebola virus in Liberia and Sierra Leone five years ago, and the ultimate death toll was under 8,000.

After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models

Computer Models, Wuhan Virus and Climate Change (Updated)

When I was first learning computers, the term was GIGO – “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.

The Wuhan virus bears heavily on the global warming / climate change hoax the left is pushing on the U.S. as a stalking horse for socialism and consolidation of power . The progressive left wants the message to be that the Wuhan virus is a mere foreshadowing of what will happen in the future due to climate change.

Computer Models, Wuhan Virus and Climate Change (Updated)

Andrea Widburg has taken an interest in the coronavirus models:

The Washington Post’s Philip Bump tried to explain away one set of wildly inflated predictions by saying the experts were accurate but that later behavioral changes caused lower numbers…

The problem is that the model Bump looks to assumed 100% social distancing, which hasn’t happened

….

Alex Berenson, a former New York Times writer, is also taking apart the modeling.  He most recently focused on Ohio’s attempt to do statistical time travel:

1/ Let’s talk more about the magic of “social distancing”: yesterday the Ohio governor said it had reduced the state’s projected peak daily cases from 62,000 to 1,600. Awesome! But let’s take a closer look, shall we?

2/ The state’s “unmitigated” model “projects” that without mitigation, the peak of 62,000 will occur (will HAVE OCCURED, to be more accurate) on March 22…

3/ Only Ohio didn’t *actually* issue a lockdown order until Monday, March 23. Yes, lockdowns are such magic that they can PREVENT (theoretical) peaks that occurred before they were issued…

4/ Folks, at this point it’s like an exercise to see if anyone is paying attention, a combination of a national folie a deux and Munchausen’s syndrome by proxy. WHAT IS GOING ON?

Maybe there’s a reason why dire projections about COVID-19 have been wrong

See also Epidemiologist lowers original catastrophic death prediction

Gavin Newsom: We Should Curtail Large Gatherings — Except for Disneyland, Theaters, and Casinos [UPDATE – Sanders Gets in on the Act]

[guest post by JVW] In our daily Coronavirus round-up : Gov. Gavin Newsom Wednesday evening announced that California public health officials have determined that gatherings of more than 250 people should be postponed or canceled across the state until at least the end of March. “Changing our actions for a short period of time will save the life of one or more people you know,” Newsom said in a statement. “That’s the choice before us.

Saving for future reference, particularly with respect to:

UPDATE BY PATTERICO: I certainly don’t favor single-payer health care, but I have to say that Bernard Sanders is probably right about World War II levels of death. I heard one Johns Hopkins expert yesterday posit the possibility of 800,000 deaths over the next year as not being unrealistic, and another today say that 480,000 deaths in the next three to seven months is a conservative estimate, with 96 million cases and 48 million hospitalizations. This includes people in their 40s and 50s and not “just” older people.

I’m curious to see how well the predicted numbers pan out.

Source: Gavin Newsom: We Should Curtail Large Gatherings — Except for Disneyland, Theaters, and Casinos [UPDATE – Sanders Gets in on the Act]

THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED: I used to think gun control was the answer. My research told me otherwise. …

THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED: I used to think gun control was the answer. My research told me otherwise. Leah Libresco is a statistician and former newswriter at FiveThirtyEight, a data journalism site. She is the author of “Arriving at Amen.” Before I started researching gun deaths, gun-control policy used to frustrate me.

Source: THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED: I used to think gun control was the answer. My research told me otherwise. …

Mass Shootings Aren’t Becoming More Common

….When 22 people were killed in El Paso, Texas, and nine more were killed in Dayton, Ohio, roughly 12 hours later, responses to the tragedy included many of the same myths and stereotypes Americans have grown used to hearing in the wake of a mass shooting.
As part of my work as a psychology researcher, I study mass homicides, as well as society’s reaction to them. A lot of bad information can follow in the wake of such emotional events; clear, data-based discussions of mass homicides can get lost among political narratives.
I’d like to clear up four common misconceptions about mass homicides and who commits them, based on the current state of research.

….

Mass Shooters Are Male White Supremacists?
Early reports suggest that the El Paso shooter was a white racist concerned about Latino immigration. Other shooters, such as the perpetrator of the Christchurch, New Zealand, attack, have also been white supremacists.
Overall, though, the ethnic composition of the group of all mass shooters in the U.S. is roughly equivalent to the American population. When 22 people were killed in El Paso, Texas, and nine more were killed in Dayton, Ohio, roughly 12 hours later, responses to the tragedy included many of the same myths and stereotypes Americans have grown used to hearing in the wake of a mass shooting.
As part of my work as a psychology researcher, I study mass homicides, as well as society’s reaction to them. A lot of bad information can follow in the wake of such emotional events; clear, data-based discussions of mass homicides can get lost among political narratives.
I’d like to clear up four common misconceptions about mass homicides and who commits them, based on the current state of research.

….

Mass Homicides Are Becoming More Frequent?
Mass homicides get a lot of news coverage which keeps our focus on the frequency of their occurrence. Just how frequent is sometimes muddled by shifting definitions of mass homicide, and confusion with other terms such as active shooter.
But using standard definitions, most data suggest that the prevalence of mass shootings has stayed fairly consistent over the past few decades.

To be sure, the U.S. has experienced many mass homicides. Even stability might be depressing given that rates of other violent crimes have declined precipitously in the U.S. over the past 25 years. Why mass homicides have stayed stagnant while other homicides have plummeted in frequency is a question worth asking.

Nonetheless, it does not appear that the U.S. is awash in an epidemic of such crimes, at least comparing to previous decades going back to the 1970s.

Mass Shootings Aren’t Becoming More Common–and Evidence Contradicts Stereotypes about the Shooters