Hypothesis: Restrictions on Hydroxychloroquine Contribute to the COVID-19 Cases Surge

Although Hydroxychloroquine remains an approved drug and doctors can still prescribe it off-label, the FDA’s and NIH’s opinions have significant influence. State governments and medical boards adhere to the FDA opinion, in their subsequent recommendations.

Source: Hypothesis: Restrictions on Hydroxychloroquine Contribute to the COVID-19 Cases Surge

But on March 16, Dr. Didier Raoult publicized his HCQ+AZ treatment regimen. Doctors in Italy and Spain started to use it, although slowly and only in hospital settings. On March 19, President Donald Trump “touted” it, immediately making this treatment popular in the world. On March 22-23, Dr. Zelenko published his protocol, adding Zinc, and, more importantly, stressing the need to treat early, without waiting for testing or hospital admission. Early HCQ+AZ treatment ramped up in Europe between March 21 and March 28. In Italy, it became the standard of care even for mild cases.

The efficacy of HCQ + AZ, with and without Zn, given early, have been reported by thousands of physicians around the world, and confirmed by more than a dozen of peer reviewed studies

Media lied and people really did die

A very real question should be asked by real journalists: Did some US media outlets encourage people to NOT take a drug that could have saved their lives- all because they hate Trump? https://t.co/QiSiXwQpmr — Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) July 3, 2020 The media went bonkers when President Donald John Trump called a regimen of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin “a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine.” For example, the Washington Post reported — without evidence — “Drug promoted by Trump as corona virus ‘game changer’ increasingly linked to deaths.” Thousands of other news organizations who posted similar articles.

Source: Media lied and people really did die

Ten Million Cases

A post on the Book of Feces Faces was lamenting that we’re up to ten million cases of Covid-19. Just for perspective, the CDC estimates that during the 2018-2019 season, the US had some 35.5 million cases of the flu. Of these, 16.5 million people went to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 were hospitalized, and 34,200 died.

So worldwide, we have just over 10 million cases of Covid-10. Of these, nearly 503,000 have died. In the USA, we’ve had 2.6 million cases, and 128 thousand deaths. So there are a lot fewer cases, but it does seem to have a higher mortality rate.

I still wonder what the reaction would have been had the news presented daily counts of the numbers of cases and deaths from flu two years ago.

Failures of Epidemic Models

Michael Fumento on the failures of epidemic models:

The … crisis we face is unparalleled in modern times,” said the World Health Organization’s assistant director, while its director general proclaimed it “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.” This was based on a CDC computer model projection predicting as many as 1.4 million deaths from just two countries. 

So when did they say this about COVID-19? Trick question: It was actually about the Ebola virus in Liberia and Sierra Leone five years ago, and the ultimate death toll was under 8,000.

After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models

THE MONUMENTAL FAILURE OF THE CDC. The lack of preparedness at every level of government (federal…

THE MONUMENTAL FAILURE OF THE CDC. The lack of preparedness at every level of government (federal, state, and local) has nothing to do with a lack of funding or inadequate staffing. Instead, it has everything to do with governments’ bloat, mismanagement, cronyism, and poor focus.

Source: THE MONUMENTAL FAILURE OF THE CDC. The lack of preparedness at every level of government (federal…

What does this economist think of epidemiologists?

I have had fringe contact with more epidemiology than usual as of late, for obvious reasons, and I do understand this is only one corner of the discipline. I don’t mean this as a complaint dump, because most of economics suffers from similar problems, but here are a few limitations I see in the mainline epidemiological models put before us:

1. They do not sufficiently grasp that long-run elasticities of adjustment are more powerful than short-run elasticites .

Source: What does this economist think of epidemiologists?

Computer Models, Wuhan Virus and Climate Change (Updated)

When I was first learning computers, the term was GIGO – “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.

The Wuhan virus bears heavily on the global warming / climate change hoax the left is pushing on the U.S. as a stalking horse for socialism and consolidation of power . The progressive left wants the message to be that the Wuhan virus is a mere foreshadowing of what will happen in the future due to climate change.

Computer Models, Wuhan Virus and Climate Change (Updated)

Andrea Widburg has taken an interest in the coronavirus models:

The Washington Post’s Philip Bump tried to explain away one set of wildly inflated predictions by saying the experts were accurate but that later behavioral changes caused lower numbers…

The problem is that the model Bump looks to assumed 100% social distancing, which hasn’t happened

….

Alex Berenson, a former New York Times writer, is also taking apart the modeling.  He most recently focused on Ohio’s attempt to do statistical time travel:

1/ Let’s talk more about the magic of “social distancing”: yesterday the Ohio governor said it had reduced the state’s projected peak daily cases from 62,000 to 1,600. Awesome! But let’s take a closer look, shall we?

2/ The state’s “unmitigated” model “projects” that without mitigation, the peak of 62,000 will occur (will HAVE OCCURED, to be more accurate) on March 22…

3/ Only Ohio didn’t *actually* issue a lockdown order until Monday, March 23. Yes, lockdowns are such magic that they can PREVENT (theoretical) peaks that occurred before they were issued…

4/ Folks, at this point it’s like an exercise to see if anyone is paying attention, a combination of a national folie a deux and Munchausen’s syndrome by proxy. WHAT IS GOING ON?

Maybe there’s a reason why dire projections about COVID-19 have been wrong

See also Epidemiologist lowers original catastrophic death prediction

It was inevitable that socialized medicine gave up on the elderly with COVID-19 — Bookworm Room

It’s no surprise that socialized medicine countries stopped treating their old people. Socialized medicine rations care even when there’s not an emergency. I was talking to a friend in Spain who has taken his 88-year-old mother into his home. His mother had previously been living in a retirement community near his house. There, as here,…

It was inevitable that socialized medicine gave up on the elderly with COVID-19 — Bookworm Room